The Time Of Year

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Short And Sweet

It was a holiday-shortened week for the markets and as I’ve been cooking, eating, and drinking my ass off for the past four days, it will be a holiday-shortened Lund Loop this week.

Let’s get to the charts…

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MARKET REVIEW

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*Click any chart to enlarge. Please read disclosures at the bottom of this page.

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Another solid week for SPX, NDX, and DJIA as we continue to move higher.

Even though we technically pulled back last week, I still think a deeper pullback - at least to the 21-day moving average - is due at some point.

Apple (AAPL)

AAPL is doing some nice consolidation at all-time highs.

Facebook (FB)

FB hit the trade target this week - up almost 7% from that reversal hammer three weeks back. It could use a week or so of consolidation before attempting to break out above the larger downtrend line.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

GOOGL held the support level from last week’s pullback.

Netflix (NFLX)

NFLX continues to grind higher, adding 1.35% this week. Looks like it could make it to the 200-day moving average before pausing.

Amazon (AMZN)

AMZN had a good week, adding 3.16%, but it’s still in a big sideways consolidation range.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

Alert the press! IWM finally broke out of an almost 11-month range this week, adding a solid 2.24%. This type of price action is bullish for the overall market.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

VIX tested that big support level but bounced on Friday. Hopefully, that’s just temporary.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

iShares Trust China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)

Both FXI and EEM had a good week - until Friday when they each took a hit due to new China-U.S. trade fears. EEM still looks slightly stronger than FXI though.

Financial Sector SPDR (XLF)

XLF is starting to move out of that consolidation area and heading towards all-time highs.

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)

XHB looked like it was in danger of rolling over last week, but this week it got a nice 1.5% pop.

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

SMH is basing near all-time highs. This is good price action that will provide a solid platform from which to move higher.

iShares Trust Biotech (IBB)

IBB has been on a tear since we first noted the trend break back in late October. It’s put on 13.3% since then and is due for a rest soon.

US Dollar Currency Index (DXY)

CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note (TNX)

DXY continues in an ever-narrowing range while TNX is holding on to a test of the broken trendline.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

GLD and SLV continue in their respective downtrends.

West Texas Oil (WTIC)

Consolidation is the name of the game here with oil

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ)

The best thing I can say about MJ this week is that it did not test its recent low.

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC is just drifting lower in a large channel.

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TRADING & INVESTING

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*Click any chart to enlarge. Please read disclosures at the bottom of this page.

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

The only chart of note from last week was HLT which tacked on a whopping 3.78%.

There are no new setups this week as most charts are looking overextended. This market could use a 1-3 week rest - and when that happens, we’ll start to see more constructive patterns that we can take advantage of.

However, we have a trading update from our friend Evan Medeiros of Trade Risk.

From Evan;

After initiating a long position in SHOP on 11/6 at 295.62 we locked in half of the trade this week at 333.94 for a +12.94% gain from our entry price. We continue to like SHOP as a position here and continue to hold half of our shares long with a next target up in the 370s. (disclosure: long) 

Don’t forget to check out Evan’s new 100% quant system, Merlin.


I hope you and yours had a great Thanksgiving holiday. I know I’m thankful to have you as a subscriber.

I’ll see you back here next week with another full version of the Lund Loop newsletter.

-B

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Thanks for reading this week’s edition of The Lund Loop.

I want to hear your opinion on these or any other topics you see fit to pontificate on.

So drop me a line.

If you arrived here by accident, happenstance, or magic, make sure that you become a paid subscriber to The Lund Loop to have it automatically delivered to your inbox once a week - isn’t technology great?

And if you really like The Lund Loop, why not purchase a subscription for a friend, loved one, or division of co-workers?

Give a gift subscription

Talk to you soon,

-B

P.S. It should go without saying - but I’ll say it anyway - all opinions expressed in The Lund Loop are my own personal opinions and don’t reflect the views of my employer, any associated entities, or other organizations I’m associated with.

Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be looked at as investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own diligence.

Thanksgiving: The Long and Short of It

Something funny happened to me on the way to the half-century mark - Thanksgiving became my favorite holiday. 

Formerly relegated to third-class status behind Christmas and the 4th of July, it’s done an end-around and now occupies the top spot.

Thinking logically, this makes sense, as you get more days off than on the 4th, and with Christmas and New Year’s still to come, you don’t get that empty feeling when it’s over, knowing that the holidays are through.

So, in honor of my new favorite holiday, here are a few thoughts on the food, people, and traditions I’ve experienced over the years;

Long turkey. Short ham.

Long mashed potatoes. Short yams, candied or otherwise.

Long corn. Short peas.

Long real plates. Short paper plates.

Long hors d'oeuvres. Short Ritz crackers.

Long black olives from a can. Short green olives from a jar.

Long the “big” table. Short the kid’s table.

Long white meat. Short dark meat.

Long good craft beer. Short the variety pack from Big Lots.

Long crescent rolls in a can. Short artisanal bread.

Long cranberries. Short Jell-O with nuts, berries, and God knows what in it.

Long pumpkin pie. Short apple pie. Double short mincemeat pie.

Long Cool Whip. Short Reddi-Whip.

Long leftovers. Short doing dishes.

Long first cousins. Short second cousins.

Long elegant aunts. Short creepy uncles.

Long menthol smoking great grandpas. Short tofurky eating second wives.

Long giving thanks. Short talking politics.

Long family. Short family.

Long the ‘Twilight Zone’ marathon. Short ‘The Simpsons’ marathon.

Long playing football in the street. Short watching football on the couch.

Long a touch of Christmas. Short the remnants of Halloween.

Long relaxing in your pajamas all day. Short the last-minute dash to the store to get more butter.

Long feeling young. Short thinking old.

Long those still here. Short those that passed.

Long making it another year. Short worrying about the next.

I hope you and your loved ones have a great Thanksgiving and I am thankful that you took a few minutes out of your day to read this.

And if you haven’t already subscribed to the Lund Loop newsletter, I’d be even more thankful if you would.

See you on Saturday.

-B

Magical Thinking

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